Every figure below was made by code that ships with puremacro: one of its 90 example scripts, or one of its showcase notebooks. Click a figure to enlarge it; the link under it opens the code. The figures are drawn in grayscale for this site, and the scripts draw the same figures in colour.
Both unilateral optima sit on the declared 30% ceiling. The 0/10% payoff matrix is not a Prisoner’s Dilemma. The audited best-response search converges in eight iterations with relative regret 2.6 × 10⁻⁷. · Notebook 63
Fourteen continuation steps round the fold with residuals below 10⁻¹³. The state Jacobian’s condition number peaks at 41 near the turning point; the bordered system’s stays below 2. · Notebook 64
A 10% duty raises country A’s nominal GDP by 3.6%, but its consumption EV is 0.002%: tariff revenue offsets higher purchaser prices. The attribution closes to within 10⁻¹³. · Notebook 65
New in 4.2
Atkeson–Burstein markups rising to 1.61 with market share, 65% border price pass-through, and factor returns diverging when capital and labor are complements (ρ = 0.50). · Notebook 62
A 25% tariff on China diverts U.S. manufacturing imports toward Mexico (14.0% to 16.4%) with Caliendo–Parro welfare impacts, and HANK quarterly MPCs range from 67.4% (decile 1) to 2.1% (decile 10). · Notebook 61
Common support overlap trimming, unbiased treatment effects for DML-IRM (10.89) and DML-IV (12.20 vs true 12.50) compared to naive OLS (13.72), and effective F of 268. · Notebook 60
Dynamic factor trajectories, exact Bańbura–Modugno news decomposition by indicator release, and calibrated predictive density fan chart (PIT p = 0.96). · Notebook 59
New in 4.0
Saving and the stationary wealth density of a continuous-time household at r = 3%, and the Aiyagari equilibrium where capital supply meets demand at r* = 1.89%. · Notebook 56
A demand and credit shock with a zero lower bound and a borrowing limit: both bind on impact, the rate stays at zero for three quarters, and output falls 14.6% instead of 9.4% in the linear model. · Notebook 57
Double/debiased ML covers the true effect of 1.75 with its 95% interval, while a Lasso that also penalizes the treatment shrinks it to 1.58. With 30 controls and 500 observations, OLS is still valid too. · Notebook 57
On the notebook’s simulated panel: a revision triangle for GDP growth, first releases against the latest snapshot, and a Mankiw–Shapiro test that rejects both news and noise. · Notebook 58
With a strong instrument, Wald bands and Anderson–Rubin sets agree. With a weak one, the Wald band still looks informative while the Anderson–Rubin set covers the whole line. · Code
New in 3.3
Chebyshev interpolants ring around the kink; the finite-element solution sits on the exact policy. · Notebook 51
A +5% TFP shock in an Aiyagari economy: the real rate, capital-market clearing and wealth inequality along the transition. · Notebook 52
Left: how the savings policy responds to each parameter. Right: the estimator’s path on the loss surface. · Notebook 53
A ten-country growth model: convergence from a capital shortage, and one slice of the learned policy. · Notebook 54
Trade diversion and welfare under a tariff and a trade war, and population after a new corridor, on the notebook’s illustrative calibration. · Notebook 55
Impulse responses & identification
Narrative sign restrictions around the October 1979 Volcker episode (Antolín-Díaz & Rubio-Ramírez, 2018), on a synthetic DGP · Code
Lag-augmented vs Newey–West local projections (Plagborg-Møller & Wolf) · Code
